Year after year, the big question for avocado suppliers in Europe is the same: how is the harvest in Peru shaping up? Just as Mexico is the major player influencing the market in the United States, Peru plays that role in Europe, as it is the player most important, in terms of the volume and quality of the fruit shipped to that market.
Peru produces between 600,000 and 700,000 tons per season, with more than 60% of its exportable production destined for that market; as a result, its fruit volume and business decisions are closely watched by other suppliers to the continent.
Alfredo Lira Chirif, a Peruvian consultant specializing in agribusiness and a columnist for Avobook, predicts that the season will start slightly later than usual, though not as late as last year. He also notes that the country is beginning to make inroads into markets where it traditionally did not supply fruit in significant volumes.
“The fruit is clean and healthy; it’s been a good year, and there’s been enough water. The cold weather this past winter has delayed the start of the season a bit—though not as much as last year. I think the northernmost areas will start harvesting around late March or early April. It might be a little earlier, but only slightly,” he explains.
Another feature of the projected exports for 2026 is that they will yield larger fruits, because—as he explains—“the trees have had more time to rest, and they channel that stored energy into the fruit.”
“The greens that are set to be harvested starting this week will likely yield significant volumes. As for the volumes in Olmos, I think they’re slightly lower than last year. And further toward the central coast, there could be a slight increase,” he explains.
Overall, he projects that the total volume from Peru will be in the same range as last year: “Perhaps 5% higher. And I’m referring to the coastal region of Peru, because the highlands have consistently surprised us with slightly higher volumes due to the replanting that has taken place in recent years in that region. This fruit is harvested in January, February, and March.”
“In short, there won’t be much more volume, and I think it will be better distributed than last year,” Lira said.
Extension of Peru's avocado export season
What you see in the agricultural areas of the mountains is interesting. But it follows its own timeline. Alfredo Lira explains that this area has been planted over a much larger area “and takes a little longer to start producing than the coast, because it’s colder.”
“The coastal region could yield about 7,000 kilos if the trees reach 24 months from transplanting to harvest. From there, yields could rise to 15,000, then 20,000. In the highlands, that increase happens more slowly because the nights are very cold. Those volumes are just now coming in from transplants made in recent years. There’s an area in Cusco that I visited not long ago, which has a lot of new avocado plantations—early-ripening varieties for Peru, with harvests in January, February, and March—and that boosts the volume for the entire country,” he explains.
I see this as a way of showing that the calendar now includes new periods throughout the year, which complement the traditional season. Peru’s export season has always been from April to August, but today there are active periods in September and October in Arequipa, and from January to March in the highlands.
“The highlands have been growing over the past six years. So we can no longer talk solely about the 700,000 to 800,000 tons from the central coast harvest. In Arequipa, there’s a farm we advise that ships fruit from August 1 to September 30, which is an extraordinary window. Our Chilean partners buy all that fruit right at the packing “because it’s right before their own harvest season and the traditional Peruvian harvest is coming to an end. You can also find good prices in Europe,” he explains.
How did the cold weather affect Peru's 2026 avocado crop?
The cold weather affected Peruvian production through November and into December. It wasn’t until January that conditions returned to normal. This had an impact on harvest times and fruit size.
“Simply put, they have fewer ‘children’ to care for, or they have the same number of ‘children’ but without the heat that causes them to lose energy. The energy they no longer lose goes into the fruit, which helps it grow larger. In the fields we’re advising in the north, in Olmos, we’ve found larger fruit compared to the same time last year,” explains Alfredo Lira.
This situation could occur in other areas that typically produce smaller fruit.
“Everything suggests that the sizes will be closer to 16 or 18 on the European scale, rather than 18, 20, or 22. It’s a small difference, but it’s important given that the fruit is sorted by size,” explains the specialist.
However, Alfredo Lira believes that this factor will not be the main one influencing the decision on which markets to target, but rather the business strategies.
The expert explains that the growth in consumption in Europe is a fact, and that this would help prevent imbalances caused by the high volume of avocados coming from many supplier countries.
“At the recent trade show in Berlin, the World Avocado Organisation (WAO) reported that in Eastern Europe—including Germany, Italy, Russia, and the entire northeastern part of the continent—consumption growth has been impressive. The organization also noted that at Lidl supermarkets in Germany, avocado sales have increased by 85% year over year,” he says.
However, Lira is convinced that Peru should focus on adopting a more aggressive marketing strategy in the United States, aiming to ripen the fruit at its destination in order to improve prices.
“Mexico’s fruit ripens on the tree, just as Colombia’s does due to the distance to the market. The ‘trough’ in Mexico’s export curve falls right within Peru’s window. So that’s where we needed to focus our efforts to match their prices, because today we’re being paid less than for Mexican fruit—not because of the fruit’s quality, but because of its condition upon arrival,” he argues.
When comparing Peruvian export strategies for Europe and the United States, one notices a difference that is hard to understand: Peruvian avocados take 25 days to reach Europe, where they ripen upon arrival. Sixty-two percent of the volume produced for export is shipped there. The transit time to the United States is between 12 and 15 days, but the fruit is not allowed to ripen.
“Given their point of origin, we can’t compete on price with Mexico, because the fruit they receive is less creamy than what Mexicans and Colombians can offer. That hurts our pricing. So, we need to work on resolving this,” says the consultant.
