We are wrapping up a tour of northern Peru, visiting avocado orchards and assessing their condition following the natural physiological drop. We have found a mix of orchards—some with more fruit than others—but all with yields above the average from two or three years ago. However, the season could start 3 to 5 weeks late due to the cold winter and a summer that began with below-average temperatures.
This could lead to a greater supply of large-sized fruits in Peru, increasing supply in both kilograms and units. Those of us in the industry know that agronomists seek to maximize production per hectare, while retailers sell by the unit, which has segmented the market by size.
Another issue we’ve noticed is the cleanliness of the fruit—free of pests and diseases that could affect its quality. To date, barring any extraordinary events (such as a FEN), we expect a slightly higher volume than last year; therefore, it is crucial to prepare commercially to distribute it to new markets and avoid overloading the European market, where we are the market leaders during our season.
The regulation requiring exports to contain at least 22% dry matter should help maintain Peru’s reputation as a reliable supplier in the global market. As for greenskins, the season will begin around the first week of March with favorable market prospects and good prices driven by demand from Russia and other Eastern European countries, as well as some quality issues in South Africa.
